Carbon emissions put sixteen percent of species at risk of extinction

Predictions of extinction risks due to climate change vary widely depending on a study’s assumptions, geographic region, and species focus. In a paper published by Mark Urban of the University of Connecticut, more than 130 of the existing studies on extinction were included in a meta-analysis to estimate the global mean rate of extinction we can expect due to anthropogenic (human-caused) climate change. Urban also determined which factor(s) contribute the most uncertainty to extinction risks.

Urban found that global extinction risks will increase as temperatures rise, putting up to 16 percent of the existing species at risk of extinction if the global climate were to rise 4.3 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. He also found that projections of future temperature increases were the most influential factor driving global extinction risk.

Prior to this study, the existing predictions of extinction risks varied widely, ranging from zero percent to over half of species being at risk of going extinct due to climate change.

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