We know that climate change promises to increase average temperatures, but we don’t yet understand exactly what kinds of variability this may introduce on a local level. We also know that extreme temperatures are dangerous for people, but our overall understanding of the relationship between fluctuating seasonal temperatures and health is pretty poor.
It’s important to figure out how different temperatures affect people’s health so that health systems can be adapted to prepare for the effects of global warming. We know that extreme heat kills people, and we also know that extreme cold kills people. But where does the balance sit in a warming world?
A paper in Nature Climate Change this week compares the death rates of people over the age of 65 in New England to temperature records. Although we can probably expect more extreme heat in future, and possibly (although not definitely) less extreme cold, the study suggests that milder winters wouldn't compensate for more extreme summers. Intriguingly, the study also finds that rapidly fluctuating temperatures are dangerous all on their own.
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