1% chance of microcephaly in Zika outbreak, scientists estimate

(credit: Teza Harinaivo Ramiandrisoa)

Based on data from a past Zika outbreak, researchers estimate that there’s a one-in-100 chance that women infected during the first trimester will give birth to a baby with microcephaly—a birth defect that leaves infants with small and malformed brains and skulls.

There’s still not a definitive link between microcephaly and the mosquito-borne virus, which is currently blazing through Central and South America. But the data coming in has only strengthened the connection. For instance, a recent study found that Zika virus can kill off developing brain cells.

With the new estimate on the rate of microcephaly in Zika infections from an outbreak in French Polynesia starting in 2013, researchers are relieved that it appears the birth defect is relatively rare.

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