New model shows Antarctica alone could raise sea level a meter by 2100

Enlarge / Satellite imagery of the seaward edge of Thwaites Glacier in Antarctica. Thwaites Glacier accounts for a big chunk of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, and it's vulnerable to major retreat. (credit: Knut Christianson)

It’s obvious that a warming climate will mean less glacial ice and higher sea level, but putting a precise number on these things is another matter. The landscapes concealed beneath the great ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica are complex in hugely important ways. The interplay of ocean currents, which deliver warmer water to eat away at the underside of floating ice shelves, also varies regionally and even locally. And the ice itself is a dynamic thing, flowing in response to changes at the coastal edges.

So while we use measurements in the present and records from the past to forecast the future, we're stuck with scientific uncertainty, which means we need the language of risk analysis to discuss things sensibly. What is the possible range of sea level rise? And what are the probabilities for different parts of this range?

While some work in this regard has already been done, we're continually sharpening those assessments. As data and knowledge accumulate, our models of the ice sheets become more reliable guides to the future.

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